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Sci. Adv., Feb 14 2025, 11 (7) | https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adq1901
Disentangling climate's dual role in dengue dynamics: A multiregion causal analysis study
Olive R Cawiding 1 2, Saebom Jeon 2 3, Donnabel Tubera-Panes 4, Aurelio A de Los Reyes V 5, Jae Kyoung Kim 1 2 6 *
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, KAIST, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea.
2Biomedical Mathematics Group, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon 34126, Republic of Korea.
3Department of Marketing Big Data, Mokwon University, Daejeon 35349, Republic of Korea.
4City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Health Services Office, Baguio City 2600, Philippines.
5Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines.
6Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea.
2Biomedical Mathematics Group, Institute for Basic Science, Daejeon 34126, Republic of Korea.
3Department of Marketing Big Data, Mokwon University, Daejeon 35349, Republic of Korea.
4City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, Health Services Office, Baguio City 2600, Philippines.
5Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines.
6Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea.
*Corresponding author: correspondence to Jae Kyoung Kim
Abstract
Dengue fever poses major public health challenges, with climate change complicating control efforts. Yet, the full extent of climate change's impact on dengue remains elusive. To investigate this, we used an advanced causal inference method to 16 diverse climatic regions in the Philippines. This method is capable of detecting nonlinear and joint effects of temperature and rainfall to dengue incidence. We found that temperature consistently increased dengue incidence throughout all the regions, while rainfall effects differed depending on the variation in dry season length, a factor previously overlooked. Specifically, our results showed that regions with low variation in dry season length experience a negative impact of rainfall on dengue incidence likely due to strong flushing effect on mosquito habitats, while regions with high variation in dry season length experience a positive impact, likely due to increased mosquito breeding sites. Our findings emphasize the need for tailored prevention strategies based on local climate conditions, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.
논문정보
- Research article
- 2025년 02월 (BRIC 등록일 2025-02-14)
- 국내(교신)+국외 연구진
- 생명과학 > 감염생물학
관련 웨비나
![Uncovering the Complex Relationship Between Climate and Dengue Incidence [Sci. Adv.]](/upload/board/files/onseminar/thumb/thumb_0000904.png)
학술웨비나
Uncovering the Complex Relationship Between Climate and Dengue Incidence [Sci. Adv.] Dengue fever is an escalating public health challenge, further complicated by the impacts of climate change on control efforts. Yet, the full extent of climate's impact on dengue incidence remains poorly understood. To investigate this, we employed an advanced causal inference method to 16 regions in the Philippines, selected for their diverse climatic conditions. Unlike previous methods for detecting regulatory relationships, this method is capable of detecting nonlinear and joint effects of temperature and rainfall to dengue incidence. Our findings show that temperature consistently increased dengue incidence throughout all the regions, while the impact of rainfall varied by location. Further analysis revealed a geographic pattern where regions with low variation in dry season length experience a negative impact of rainfall on dengue incidence, while regions with high variation in dry season length experience a positive impact. This study offers a fresh perspective on the relationship between climate and dengue incidence, emphasizing the need for tailored prevention strategies based on local climate conditions.- Olive R. Cawiding(KAIST)
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