정성목 (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

한빛사논문

조회377

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

PLoS Med., Apr 2024, 21 (4) e1004387 | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004387 Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

Sung-Mok Jung ¹, Sara L. Loo ², Emily Howerton ³, Lucie Contamin ⁴, Claire P. Smith², Erica C. Carcelén ², Katie Yan ³, Samantha J. Bents ⁵, John Levander ⁴, Jessi Espino⁴, Joseph C. Lemaitre ¹, Koji Sato ², Clifton D. McKee ², Alison L. Hill ², Matteo Chinazzi ⁶, Jessica T. Davis ⁶, Kunpeng Mu⁶, Alessandro Vespignani ⁶, Erik T. Rosenstrom ⁷, Sebastian A. Rodriguez-Cartes ⁷, Julie S. Ivy⁷, Maria E. Mayorga⁷, Julie L. Swann⁷, Guido España⁸, Sean Cavany ⁸, Sean M. Moore ⁸, T. Alex Perkins ⁸, Shi Chen ⁹, Rajib Paul ⁹, Daniel Janies ⁹, Jean-Claude Thill ⁹, Ajitesh Srivastava ¹⁰, Majd Al Aawar ¹⁰, Kaiming Bi ¹¹, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar¹¹, Anass Bouchnita ¹², Spencer J. Fox ¹³, Lauren Ancel Meyers ¹¹, Przemyslaw Porebski ¹⁴, Srini Venkatramanan¹⁴, Aniruddha Adiga ¹⁴, Benjamin Hurt¹⁴, Brian Klahn¹⁴, Joseph Outten ¹⁴, Jiangzhuo Chen¹⁴, Henning Mortveit ¹⁴, Amanda Wilson ¹⁴, Stefan Hoops ¹⁴, Parantapa Bhattacharya ¹⁴, Dustin Machi ¹⁴, Anil Vullikanti ¹⁴, Bryan Lewis ¹⁴, Madhav Marathe ¹⁴, Harry Hochheiser⁴, Michael C. Runge¹⁵, Katriona Shea³, Shaun Truelove ², Cécile Viboud ⁵, Justin Lessler^1,2

¹University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.

²Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

³The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

⁴University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

⁵Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.

⁶Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.

⁷North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.

⁸University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America.

⁹University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina, United States of America.

¹⁰University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America.

¹¹University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America.

¹²University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas, United States of America.

¹³University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.

¹⁴University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.

¹⁵U.S. Geological Survey, Laurel, Maryland, United States of America.

Corresponding author : Justin Lessler

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).

Methods and findings: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.

Conclusions: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

논문정보

형식Research article
게재일2024년 04월 (BRIC 등록일 2024-05-27)
연구진국외 연구진
분야 의약학 > 감염의학

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